The following is a summary of the translation of an article by Hrant Mikaelian on his blog the Caucasus Knot regarding doubts about the authenticity of data being released by the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia. The author is one of the foremost experts in Armenia in the field of statistics.
Author: Hrant Mikaelian
Source: Kavkaz Uzel
The author states that he did not rush to join others in their early criticism of the new government as it pertains to the field of statistics and data manipulation. However given new issues that have risen, there are questions that must be answered. He raises four specific issues:
First Issue: At the end of the year, Armenia was on track to record a +32.2% growth in exports in the first four months, and an -1.8% fall in exports in the months following the revolution. Needless to say, this would have been a uncomfortable result for the government. However, in late January 2019, the monthly data for the previous year were retroactively changed, with the government claiming a change in methodology. In blue one can see the original monthly data, and in orange the new data. Essentially the volume of exports for January 2018 was drastically decreased and the balance was distributed to the other months- mostly to June- in order to create in a positive number for the post revolutionary period. (The data for December was released after the “change”, therefore there is no original number to compare it to). This avoided the previously mentioned uncomfortable scenario.
Second Issue: After the economy began registering an alarming decline in economic activity in the months after the revolution, a trend that was sharpening each month, there was suddenly a purported drastic turn around at the year end, after the aforementioned so called change in methodology. The change was so drastic that it was unprecedented in the ten years for which economic activity data has been kept. In blue one can see the level of economic activity in December relative to November for each year. In orange, one can see it for December relative to September. Not once in the past ten years had the economy taken such a purported leap during the last month of the year relative to the months before, as it did in 2018.
Third Issue: In mid January 2019, economic activity index for 2018 was predicted to be 5.2-5.3%. Then suddenly, on January 31th of 2019, it was announced to be 5.8%, explained by a purported surge in activity December. The author, a neutral observer and an expert in the field, states that this 0.5-0.6% change is not explainable given the absence of a similar change in the region and in neighboring countries.
Fourth Issue: Despite the data being available on the 20th of each month, just as it has always been in the years past, it is now being published 5-7 days later, which creates questions as to what justifies the delay, and what- if anything- is being done with the data, given that it is ready to be published on the 20th.
The author states that each of these issues by themselves could have been disregarded as mere mistakes or coincidences. However, all four occurring together suggests something much more significant, and can no longer be ignored.
The author concludes by stating that for him, starting from December of 2018, he can longer have full confidence in the publications of Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia.
Commentary: It is incredible important to note that every single one of these changes occurred immediately after Nikol Pashinyan’s announcement of an economic revolution. In the previous months I have also written about the unprecedented step of retroactive alterations to past data, and what is increasing looking like data falsification. Most notably that wage increases in 2017 under Karen Karapetyan were originally recorded at 10.2 percent. However the new government has since retroactively altered that number, reducing it to 1.9 percent.
The current administration has made an incredible number of deplorable decisions in the past year. However, if true, this would be among the most serious.