An opinion poll carried out by Ukrainian NGO Center for Social Development “Inter-Action” over the first days of June has confirmed the opposition lead and growing momentum shown in the recent set of MPG/Gallup Int. polls.
Please note that in order to maintain consistency in methodology, I am not going to add this poll to the series of MPG/Gallup Int. polls that I have previously charted. And in order to avoid repeating previously stated information, I am going to skip explaining charting methodology and background information about the electoral code and the Armenian political landscape. Please refer to the June 5th article below for that information.
June 5 Election Data Update: Robert Kocharyan Led Opposition Surges Ahead in Polls
The poll which was conducted over the phone with 1908 eligible voters- 704 in Yerevan, and 1204 in the regions- was performed roughly over the same period of time as the latest MPG/Gallup Int. poll.
The latest poll shows the ruling party with 21.8 percent of support among all voters, and 35.6 percent of support among decided voters. The leading opposition force, the Հայաստան alliance comes in at second place with 17.8 percent of all voters, and 29.1 percent of all decided voters.
Likely coalition partners in a Հայաստան alliance led ruling coalition, Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance and ԲՀԿ come in at third and fourth place, with 15.5 percent and 8.3 percent of decided voters, respectively.
The most notable result of the data and the most significant difference from the MPG/Gallup Int. polls is the performance of Պատիվ Ունեմ.
It is important to note that the listed seven political forces were the only listed options in the telephone poll, which excluded the Republic Party (ՀԿ) of Aram Sargsyan.
This is the first poll in recent weeks showing Պատիվ Ունեմ as well as ԼՀԿ crossing their respective required seven and five percent thresholds to enter parliament.
I had previously explained that it is likely that Aram Sargsyan’s ՀԿ is reaping the benefits of voter unfamiliarity with the Պատիվ Ունեմ name, as voters are giving their support to Aram Sargsyan’s ՀԿ in confusion with the ՀՀԿ of Պատիվ Ունեմ. The performance of the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance in this poll would support that theory.
As I had explained two days ago, it is interesting to note that despite being the liberal force facing a conservative opposition, the ruling party is receiving much greater support in the conservative regions. This is likely due to the fact that administrative resources and election bribes play a larger role in those areas than in the capital. The ruling party is further aided by the fact that it has much greater information control in those areas, as the leading sources of opposition news 5րդ Ալիք and Armnews are not available outside of the capital.
Based on these results, the opposition coalition of Հայաստան alliance, Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance, and ԲՀԿ would receive 56 percent of parliamentary seats, while the ruling party would receive 37 percent of seats, and its quasi-ally ԼՀԿ would receive 7 seats.
Further polling results would be needed before confidently drawing conclusions based off of these results, mainly because the performance of Պատիվ Ունեմ is such an outlier relative to the polling done by MPG/Gallup Int. However given the history of the organization conducting the polling, as well as the methodology used, there is no inherent reason to doubt the results.
What can be confidently said is that these results confirm the general trend which we have been seeing in the MPG/Gallup Int. polls, which seem to be showing support for the opposition growing significantly, and the ruling party in a seeming free fall. Based on the latest two polls, it can now be said, with a fairly strong degree of confidence, that Robert Kocharyan is on a path to become the next prime minister of Armenia.