MPG/Gallup Int has released an updated pre-election poll, taken between June 14th to June 17th. It’s their eight and final such poll released during this campaign season, and the fifth in the last four weeks. I added the data to what I had charted during the previous weeks. To review the full methodology that I have used, you can look at the original article from May 25th. For the sake of consistency, I have not included other polls outside of the MPG/Gallup Int. polls. Everything that has been stated in previous weeks has been italicized.

Based on the latest data, the Հայաստան alliance between the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ՀՅԴ), former president Robert Kocharyan, and Armenian Renaissance (ՎՀԿ) has once again continued its strong momentum, widening its lead which it had established for the first time last week. In the latest data, among all voters, it now has an outright lead of 3.5 percent over the ruling party, a 20.8 percent turnaround from the launch of their campaign. Much more importantly, the opposition as a whole now enjoys a commanding 14.5 percent lead among all voters, a 16.5 percent lead among decided voters, and it is now in position to take some sixty percent of seats in parliament. Please note that the reason why the lead remains largely unchanged from last week despite significantly improved numbers for the main two opposition forces is that this is the first poll where ԼՀԿ has managed to pass the required minimum five percent threshold, which has essentially canceled the gains made by the top two opposition forces.

To avoid confusion, please distinguish between the pro-government Republic Party (ՀԿ) of Aram Sargsyan and the former ruling party of Serzh Sargsyan, the Republican Party of Armenia (ՀՀԿ). On a similar note, distinguish between the aforementioned Republic Party (ՀԿ), and the Fatherland Party of Artur Vanetsyan (which has the same Armenian initials as ՀԿ) which is in an alliance with ՀՀԿ in the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance. To avoid confusion, In this article I refer to Artur Vanetsyan’s party only in its full name and only in English, while I refer to Aram Sargsyan’s party as ՀԿ.

Using the latest polling data, as well as that of undecided voters above, I tried to create an accurate picture of committed voters. Once again, you can refer to the May 25th article to get the full details of the methodology used.

If you are not familiar with the Armenian political landscape, please note that the ruling party and ՀԿ can be considered firmly in the socially liberal/pro-western/anti-nationalist government camp, while the equally liberal Bright Armenia Party (ԼՀԿ) can be considered somewhat in the government camp. On the opposition side, the Հայաստան and Պատիվ Ունեմ alliances can be considered firmly in the socially conservative/pro-Russia/nationalist opposition camp, with the equally socially conservative Prosperous Party of Armenia (ԲՀԿ) somewhat in the opposition camp, but largely limited to whatever best serves the personal interests of Gagik Tsarukyan. Both ԼՀԿ and ԲՀԿ can be expected to be willing to cross lines if it serves their interests, though at this point both of those scenarios seem unlikely.

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Understanding This Data

Understanding the Electoral Code

The following are critical parts of the Armenian electoral code that must be understood. I only included the parts that are pertinent to the results of the latest polling data. Once again, everything that has been stated in previous weeks and has not since been updated or changed has been italicized.

• All political parties must receive a minimum of five percent of the vote to enter parliament. All political alliances must receive a minimum of seven percent. This means as things stand ՀԿ being under five percent would not enter parliament, while ԼՀԿ would.
• If a party or coalition gets less than fifty-four percent, but more than fifty percent, they will be granted the additional seats needed to reach a fifty-four percent majority. (Please note the difference between a coalition and an alliance. An alliance is formed pre-election, such as the Հայաստան alliance between ՀՅԴ, Robert Kocharyan, and ՎՀԿ or that of Պատիվ Ունեմ between ՀՀԿ and the Fatherland Party. A coalition is formed post-election between parties and alliances in order to form a ruling government. An example would be the most likely coalition that we will see: the one between Հայաստան alliance, Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance, and ԲՀԿ.

• Parliamentary seats will be divided among parties and alliances that have cleared the necessary thresholds, based on the percentages of votes received. Meaning as it stands (Scenario I), with ԼՀԿ clearing the necessary thresholds, the ruling party would receive 33.5 percent of parliamentary seats, losing control of the government (Scenario I). The Հայաստան alliance along with Պատիվ Ունեմ and ԲՀԿ would collectively receive some 59.7 percent of parliamentary seats, taking control of the government.

In the less likely scenario that ԼՀԿ does not clear the minimum threshold, at this point, the current opposition would be looking at the possibility of gaining a supermajority. In such a scenario it would control some 64.0 percent of seats in parliament.

Conclusion

It has now been three polls in a row where Պատիվ Ունեմ has seen support well above the minimum seven percent threshold required for alliances. I had previously stated that the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance managing to enter parliament may be the decisive factor in an opposition victory. Given the strong late-stage surge of Պատիվ Ունեմ, I am inclined to believe the opposition is set for a victory. This is because even if ԼՀԿ get into parliament, canceling the perforamnce of ԲՀԿ, Պատիվ Ունեմ getting in would mean the ruling party would have to beat the Հայաստան alliance by at least seven percent, which based on current data, I do not find feasible.

Once again, to repeat my conclusion from last week, at this point, based on my understanding of statistics and mathematics, I can say with a very high degree of confidence that Robert Kocharyan will be the next prime minister of Armenia.