Gallup International/MPG has released an updated pre-election poll, taken between June 1st to June 4th. I added the data to what I had charted during the previous weeks. To review the full methodology that I have used, you can look at the original article from May 25th.
Providing Some Much Needed Clarity on Pre-Election Data and Trends
Based on the latest data, the Հայաստան alliance between the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ՀՅԴ), former president Robert Kocharyan, and Armenian Renaissance (ՎՀԿ) has once again continued its dramatic momentum. In the latest data, among all voters, it now trails the ruling party by a mere 1.8 percent, down from 17.3 percent before the launch of their campaign. However the opposition as a whole now leads the ruling government by at least 2.4 percent, and likely by a much larger margin. I will explain below.
To avoid confusion, please distinguish between the pro-government Republic Party (ՀԿ) of Aram Sargsyan and the former ruling party of Serzh Sargsyan, the Republican Party of Armenia (ՀՀԿ). On a similar note, distinguish between the aforementioned Republic Party (ՀԿ), and the Fatherland Party of Artur Vanetsyan (which has the same Armenian initials as ՀԿ) which is in an alliance with ՀՀԿ in the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance. To avoid confusion, In this article I refer to Artur Vanetsyan’s party only in its full name and only in English, while I refer to Aram Sargsyan’s party as ՀԿ.
Using the latest polling data, as well as that of undecided voters above, I tried to create an accurate picture of committed voters. Once again, you can refer to the May 25th article to get the full details of the methodology used.
If you are not familiar with the Armenian political landscape, please note that the ruling party and ՀԿ can be considered firmly in the socially liberal/pro-western/anti-nationalist government camp, while the equally liberal Bright Armenia Party (ԼՀԿ) can be considered somewhat in the government camp. On the opposition side, the Հայաստան and Պատիվ Ունեմ alliances can be considered firmly in the socially conservative/pro-Russia/nationalist opposition camp, with the equally socially conservative Prosperous Party of Armenia (ԲՀԿ) somewhat in the opposition camp, but largely limited to whatever best serves the personal interests of Gagik Tsarukyan. Both ԼՀԿ and ԲՀԿ can be expected to be willing to cross lines if it serves their interests, though at this point both of those scenarios seem unlikely.
Understanding This Data
Understanding the Electoral Code
The following are critical parts of the Armenian electoral code that must be understood. I only included the parts that are pertinent to the results of the latest polling data:
- All political parties must receive a minimum of five percent of the vote to enter parliament. All political alliances must receive a minimum of seven percent. This means as things stand ԼՀԿ and ՀԿ being under five percent, and Պատիվ Ունեմ being under seven percent, would not enter parliament.
- If a party or coalition gets less than fifty-four percent, but more than fifty percent, they will be granted the additional seats needed to reach a fifty-four percent majority. (Please note the difference between a coalition and an alliance. A coalition is formed post-election between parties and alliances in order to form a ruling government. An example would be a coalition between the Հայաստան alliance, and ԲՀԿ. An alliance is formed pre-election, such as the Հայաստան alliance between ՀՅԴ, Robert Kocharyan, and ՎՀԿ or that of Պատիվ Ունեմ between ՀՀԿ and the Fatherland Party.)
- Parliamentary seats will be divided among parties and alliances that have cleared the necessary thresholds, based on the percentages of votes receives. Meaning as it stands (Scenario I), with Պատիվ Ունեմ and ԼՀԿ and ՀԿ not clearing the necessary thresholds, the ruling party would receive 47.5 percent of parliamentary seats, losing control of the government (first graphic below). The Հայաստան alliance along with ԲՀԿ would together receive some 52.5 percent of parliamentary seats, taking control of the government.
I explained previously in a facebook post, that it is highly likely that the voters are not yet familiar with the name of the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance, and that they are responding with ՀԿ, when they in fact mean ՀՀԿ, one of the two parties composing the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance. The fact that ՀԿ saw inexplicable and unprecedented support in the first two polls in which the name ՀՀԿ did not appear supports this theory. As voters become familiar with the name of the new alliance, it should be expected that the numbers for the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance will increase. In the case that Պատվ Ունեմ clears the seven percent threshold (Scenario II), the new Robert Kocharyan led government can expect to control 56.1 percent of parliamentary seats, with the former government receiving 43.9 percent of seats. My predictions from last week has so far proven to be accurate, as Պատիվ Ունեմ has seen a significant increase in its share of the vote, while ՀԿ has seen a significant decrease.
If both ԼՀԿ and Պատիվ Ունեմ clear their respective thresholds (Scenario III), the opposition will take control of government with 53.2 percent of seats.
Only in the highly unlikely case that Պատիվ Ունեմ falls short of its threshold but ԼՀԿ crosses its required threshold (Scenario IV), would the government have any hope of retaining power with 50.5 percent of seats. Even then, the leader of ԼՀԿ, Edmon Marukyan has said that he will not form any coalition where Nikol Pashinyan (or Robert Kocharyan) would be the prime minister.
- If a ruling government is not formed within six days of the election, a runoff will be held between the top two parties, where the winner will receive the additional seats needed to reach fifty-four percent.
Conclusion
At this point it is undeniable that the Robert Kocharyan led Հայաստան alliance has complete momentum, while the ruling party is in a free fall, with Armenia facing multiple crises, disasters, and scandals. The one factor to keep an eye out for is the performance of Պատիվ Ունեմ, as their surpassing of the seven percent threshold would put the results beyond all doubt. In a similar light, one must keep a look out for ԼՀԿ as well as ՀԿ, as their surpassing of the five percent threshold would be the best- and perhaps last- hope the ruling party has to retain power. However, in the end, given the opposing trajectories of the top two political forces, it now seems inevitable that the Հայաստան alliance is on a path to victory, regardless of how the smaller political forces perform.
